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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 0.90 xG and Korona Kielce 1.26 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 26% | Draw 29% | Korona Kielce 45%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 47%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.19 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights