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Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gornik Zabrze.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Gornik Zabrze 2-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.54 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.32 / defence 1.11 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.04 / defence 0.72, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 40% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 32%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 53%, Gornik Zabrze 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights