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Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.44 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.73 / defence 1.22 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 29% | Draw 26% | Gornik Zabrze 44%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 44%, Gornik Zabrze 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights