Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 4W 3D 3L at KGHM Zaglebie Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.20 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Cracovia Krakow have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Zaglebie Lubin's 1 victories.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Cracovia Krakow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / defence 0.717 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Zaglebie Lubin games / 40 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 38% | Cracovia Krakow 19%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.33 | Draw 2.63 | Cracovia Krakow 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 20% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 43% | Draw 38% | Cracovia Krakow 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.13 / Cracovia Krakow 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.873 / def 0.717 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Cracovia Krakow xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 43% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 19% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 5 | Cracovia Krakow 4W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
43%
2.31
38%
2.64
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
1.80
0.67
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
6%
16.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.67 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 15W 11D 13L from 39 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 12L across 39 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.44 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 9W 6D 4L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 8D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.05 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Cracovia Krakow in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 17D 12L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.74 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 37%, Cracovia Krakow 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 47% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 47%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 37% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 37% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 47% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.