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Dominant Zaglebie Lubin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zaglebie Lubin beat Arka Gdynia 4-0 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.21 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.81 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arka Gdynia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.25 / defence 1.23 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.55 / defence 1.14, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 69% | Draw 19% | Arka Gdynia 12%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 78%, Arka Gdynia 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights