Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 42%, yet in-form Wisla Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wisla Krakow are 1.90 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 4–3 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.29 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.791 / defence 1.083 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.112. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Wisla Plock games / 1 Wisla Krakow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Krakow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 42% | Draw 29% | Wisla Krakow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.29 / Wisla Krakow 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.791 / def 1.083 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 42% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
What do the betting odds say about Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.79) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.48
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.31
1.02
Wisla Krakow xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.02 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Wisla Krakow's attacking output running into Wisla Plock's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Wisla Krakow in 100%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Wisla Krakow 3-4 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.