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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wisla Plock.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Wisla Plock 0-2 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.43 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.93 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 47% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 23%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 20%, Widzew Łódź 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights