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Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.08 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.78 / defence 0.79 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 31% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 38%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 17%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.67 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights