🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.01 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 36% | Draw 33% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 31%, Radomiak Radom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.55 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights