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Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pogon Szczecin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Pogon Szczecin 2-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 23%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 25%, Pogon Szczecin 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights