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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Wisla Plock welcome Pogon Szczecin to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Orlen Stadion, Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 1.60 PPG versus Pogon Szczecin's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 58% and Pogon Szczecin 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 25% | Pogon Szczecin 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.928 / defence 0.883 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.957 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Data: 12 Wisla Plock games / 47 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 50% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 23%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 4.35. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 43% | Pogon Szczecin 70% BTTS from recent games.

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