Wisla Plock 4-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Miedz Legnica have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Miedz Legnica have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Wisla Plock's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Miedz Legnica's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.167 / defence 0.877 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.815 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.179. Data: 37 Wisla Plock games / 2 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 26% | Miedz Legnica 18%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Miedz Legnica 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 26% | Miedz Legnica 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Wisla Plock 1.66 / Miedz Legnica 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.167 / def 0.877 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.815 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Miedz Legnica xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica?
Wisla Plock 4 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 56% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.17x the league average against Miedz Legnica's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Miedz Legnica's attack (0.81x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 37/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.92
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.50
0.84
Miedz Legnica xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
4%
28.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.84 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Miedz Legnica sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.50 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica in 100%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Miedz Legnica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Miedz Legnica have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Miedz Legnica 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Plock's games and 100% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wisla Plock's matches and 50% of Miedz Legnica's.
Do Wisla Plock and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Miedz Legnica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Miedz Legnica 4-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.66 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.84 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.17 / defence 0.88 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 26% | Miedz Legnica 18%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 100%, Miedz Legnica 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Miedz Legnica shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.