Lechia Gdansk 0-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Korona Kielce travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 1.33 (Korona Kielce). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Korona Kielce trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 33% versus Korona Kielce 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lechia Gdansk 100% | Korona Kielce 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.078 / defence 0.850 | Korona Kielce attack 0.740 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.207. Data: 36 Lechia Gdansk games / 3 Korona Kielce games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 16%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Korona Kielce 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Korona Kielce 67%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.70 / Korona Kielce 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.078 / def 0.850 | Korona Kielce attack 0.740 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 59% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.08) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.96
16%
6.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.46
0.76
Korona Kielce xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.38
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
34.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.76 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.00 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Korona Kielce won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
3
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 33%, Korona Kielce 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lechia Gdansk and 33% for Korona Kielce. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 67% of games; Korona Kielce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 67% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 33% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Lechia Gdansk 0-1 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 0.76 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against Korona Kielce attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 59% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 16%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 100%, Korona Kielce 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.00 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.