🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Legia Warszawa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.47 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.20 / defence 0.86, drawn from 4/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 25%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Legia Warszawa managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights