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Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.17 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.71 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.69 / defence 1.21 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.29 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 25% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 49%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 30%, Lechia Gdansk 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.44 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights