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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Wisla Plock — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 3W 2D 5L at Orlen Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jagiellonia — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 3 for Jagiellonia and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Table Standings

In the Ekstraklasa table, Jagiellonia sit 3rd on 56 points, 5 places and 10 points ahead of Wisla Plock in 8th.

On home turf, Wisla Plock's Ekstraklasa record reads 8W 3D 6L this term. Away from home, Jagiellonia have posted 6W 8D 3L in Ekstraklasa this season. Jagiellonia: Conference League Qualification.

Trading Patterns

Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 47% versus Jagiellonia 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 35% | Jagiellonia 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.98 xG and Jagiellonia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.739 / defence 1.087 | Jagiellonia attack 1.109 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Wisla Plock games / 34 Jagiellonia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 25% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 46%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.17. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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