Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Jagiellonia at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Plock have posted 3W 1D 6L at Orlen Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 1.20 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 2 for Jagiellonia and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 48% versus Jagiellonia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 38% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.30 xG and Jagiellonia 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.848 / defence 0.990 | Jagiellonia attack 1.208 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.306. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Wisla Plock games / 42 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 28% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 40%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Jagiellonia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Plock 20% | Jagiellonia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 28% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Wisla Plock 1.30 / Jagiellonia 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.848 / def 0.990 | Jagiellonia attack 1.208 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jagiellonia xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 28% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 2W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
28%
3.55
32%
3.15
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.86
1.56
Jagiellonia xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.56 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Wisla Plock have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 15W 12D 15L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.36 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wisla Plock have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 8D 5L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.62 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Jagiellonia away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.55 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 25%, Jagiellonia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Wisla Plock) and 55% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 60% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 55% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.