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Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.39 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 29%, Jagiellonia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 2.29 PPG, Jagiellonia 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights