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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Wisla Plock 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Wisla Plock 0-1 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.66 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.18 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.56 / defence 1.29 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 19% | Draw 34% | Gornik Zabrze 47%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 34%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.41 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights