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Stalemate at Wisla Plock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.24 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.91 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.75 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 41% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 25%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 19%, Cracovia Krakow 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wisla Plock's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.75 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights