Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Krakow at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana plays host to Wisla Krakow versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 6W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Wisla Krakow's favour (1.50 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wisla Krakow 0W, Widzew Łódź 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 69% and Widzew Łódź 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 62% | Widzew Łódź 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.60 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.004 / defence 0.874 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.022 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Data: 13 Wisla Krakow games / 47 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 46% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 4.00. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Krakow are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 67% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 46% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.60 / Widzew Łódź 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.004 / def 0.874 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.022 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 46% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Krakow's attack at 1.00x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
46%
2.20
29%
3.43
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
19.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.15 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 6W 3D 4L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 1W 8D 4L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 3.00 PPG from 6 outings (6W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.31 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 8D 4L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 1 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Wisla Krakow, 67% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Wisla Krakow) and 50% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wisla Krakow's games and 67% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.