Wisla Krakow 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Wisla Krakow (all games): 3W 2D 3L across 8 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.75 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.62 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 1L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.38 for Wisla Krakow, 1.62 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Wisla Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 62% and Pogon Szczecin 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 88% | Pogon Szczecin 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.39 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.084 / defence 1.076 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.762 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.142. Data: 8 Wisla Krakow games / 8 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 47% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 4.00. Wisla Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Krakow at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Krakow if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Krakow 50% | Pogon Szczecin 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 47% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.39 / Pogon Szczecin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.084 / def 1.076 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.762 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Wisla Krakow 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 47% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (1.08) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.76x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.62
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.94 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Krakow come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Wisla Krakow against 1.62 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wisla Krakow's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.38 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.75 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2022, when Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 50%, Pogon Szczecin 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Wisla Krakow) and 0% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wisla Krakow's games and 75% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 0% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Wisla Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Wisla Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.39 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 47% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Wisla Krakow to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 88%, Pogon Szczecin 12%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Krakow 1.38 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.