Warta Poznań 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 37%, yet in-form Zaglebie Lubin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Warta Poznań welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 1W 4D 3L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record: 1W 0D 2L from 3 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.71 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zaglebie Lubin's 1.71 PPG return is 0.83 points per game ahead of Warta Poznań's 0.88 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Warta Poznań trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 29% versus Zaglebie Lubin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 14% | Zaglebie Lubin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.663 / defence 1.158 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.668 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.105. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Warta Poznań games / 7 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (1.71 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 50% | Zaglebie Lubin 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Warta Poznań 0.99 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.663 / def 1.158 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.668 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Zaglebie Lubin xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Warta Poznań 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 37% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.66x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.06
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.85
0.85
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 13.5 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.85 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Warta Poznań come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Warta Poznań's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zaglebie Lubin's season.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.67 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Warta Poznań won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Warta Poznań 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Warta Poznań 33% BTTS, Zaglebie Lubin 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Warta Poznań and 67% for Zaglebie Lubin.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 33%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 67% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 0% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Warta Poznań 0-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.85 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.66 / defence 1.16 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.67 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 37% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 30%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Zaglebie Lubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 14%, Zaglebie Lubin 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.