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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 18 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Radomiak Radom to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.45 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.940 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 0 Wieczysta Kraków games / 34 Radomiak Radom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 41% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 32%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wieczysta Kraków at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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