Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wieczysta Kraków at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 18 as Wieczysta Kraków welcome Radomiak Radom to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 1W 0D 4L from 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wieczysta Kraków, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 80% and Radomiak Radom 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Radomiak Radom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.50 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.832 / defence 1.176 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.720 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.259. Data: 5 Wieczysta Kraków games / 41 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 44% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 24%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wieczysta Kraków at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wieczysta Kraków offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 44% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.50 / Radomiak Radom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.832 / def 1.176 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.720 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Wieczysta Kraków (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 44% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wieczysta Kraków the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wieczysta Kraków's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wieczysta Kraków Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.16
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.56
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
18.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.07 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wieczysta Kraków's recent record stands at 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wieczysta Kraków heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Radomiak Radom in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Wieczysta Kraków or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wieczysta Kraków have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 80%, Radomiak Radom 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wieczysta Kraków and 60% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 40%; Radomiak Radom in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 60% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.