Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź Prediction & Preview

📋

Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wieczysta Kraków face Widzew Łódź.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Widzew Łódź travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wieczysta Kraków in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wieczysta Kraków's home record over their last 5 home games: 1W 1D 3L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 0.90 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 60% of Widzew Łódź's (from Wieczysta Kraków's last 5 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Widzew Łódź 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2026, ended Wieczysta Kraków 2–2 Widzew Łódź — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 71% and Widzew Łódź 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 71% | Widzew Łódź 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.40 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.870 / defence 1.154 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.012 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Wieczysta Kraków's last 14 games and Widzew Łódź's last 48.

Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 33% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 39%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.03 | Draw 3.53 | Widzew Łódź 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wieczysta Kraków's last 5 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wieczysta Kraków 80% (last 5 home games) | Widzew Łódź 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights