Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wieczysta Kraków host Pogon Szczecin at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 1W 2D 5L from 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 1.28 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.62). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (8 games): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 75% and Pogon Szczecin 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 62% | Pogon Szczecin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 0.89 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.803 / defence 1.126 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.970 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Wieczysta Kraków games / 42 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 20% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 46%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Pogon Szczecin 2.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Wieczysta Kraków 75% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 20% | Draw 34% | Pogon Szczecin 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 0.89 / Pogon Szczecin 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.803 / def 1.126 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.970 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 20% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wieczysta Kraków's attack rating (0.80) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
20%
5.08
34%
2.90
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.31
1.43
Pogon Szczecin xG
5.08
20%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
21.16
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.43 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Wieczysta Kraków have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 2D 5L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 4W 3D 1L from 8 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.26 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wieczysta Kraków.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Have Wieczysta Kraków or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wieczysta Kraków have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 75%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wieczysta Kraków) and 38% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Wieczysta Kraków's recent games and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.