Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Widzew Łódź (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wisla Plock to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Widzew Łódź carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Wisla Plock and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Wisla Plock 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.97 xG and Wisla Plock 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.185 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 39 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 25%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Plock 4.00. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.97 / Wisla Plock 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.185 | Wisla Plock attack 0.898 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 49% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 3 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.76
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.35
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
3%
28.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.39 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 12W 9D 18L from 39 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 15L across 39 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.15 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.95 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 9D 18L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Wisla Plock away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.53 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
From 5 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 63%, Wisla Plock at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Widzew Łódź) and 47% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Widzew Łódź's games and 68% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 47% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.