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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.81 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.36, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Radomiak Radom 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights