Widzew Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Widzew Łódź 2W, Radomiak Radom 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 51% and Radomiak Radom 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Radomiak Radom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.81 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.828 / defence 0.868 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.042 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.237. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 45 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Radomiak Radom 4.35. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 30% | Radomiak Radom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.81 / Radomiak Radom 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.828 / def 0.868 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.042 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Radomiak Radom xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Widzew Łódź 2W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.83x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.04x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
53%
1.87
23%
4.26
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.93
1.12
Radomiak Radom xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
4%
26.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.12 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 15W 8D 22L from 45 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.24 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 10W 3D 9L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.51 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 71%.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 8D 22L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.50 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 32%, Radomiak Radom 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Widzew Łódź) and 73% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 32% of games; Radomiak Radom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 68% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 73% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.81 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.12 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 1.36, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 53% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 47%, Radomiak Radom 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.18 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.