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Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Łódź 1-2 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.75 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.77 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 57% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 19%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 44%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.21 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights