Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Legia Warszawa travel to to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at : 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Legia Warszawa are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Legia Warszawa, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Legia Warszawa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Legia Warszawa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Legia Warszawa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.18 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.886 / defence 1.132 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.194 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Widzew Łódź games / 43 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 22% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 48%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.08. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 22% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.18 / Legia Warszawa 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.886 / def 1.132 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.194 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Legia Warszawa xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 22% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Record (9 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 3 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.89) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
22%
4.52
30%
3.33
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.94
1.77
Legia Warszawa xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
4%
26.43
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.77 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 13W 12D 18L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 9L across 43 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.19 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 7W 9D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.42 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 17D 9L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.55 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 59%, Legia Warszawa 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 41% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Widzew Łódź's games and 68% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 41% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.