Widzew Łódź 0-3 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 41%, yet in-form Korona Kielce provide a compelling counter-argument — this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Korona Kielce are 1.00 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Korona Kielce in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 46% versus Korona Kielce 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 46% | Korona Kielce 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.63 xG and Korona Kielce 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.944 / defence 1.518 | Korona Kielce attack 0.903 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Korona Kielce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Widzew Łódź games / 33 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 33%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Korona Kielce 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Korona Kielce (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Korona Kielce 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.63 / Korona Kielce 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.944 / def 1.518 | Korona Kielce attack 0.903 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Korona Kielce xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 3 Korona Kielce.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 41% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.90x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
41%
2.42
25%
3.96
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.08
1.45
Korona Kielce xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.45 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.15 PPG from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.15 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Korona Kielce's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce in 61%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Korona Kielce away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.12 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 56%, Korona Kielce 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Widzew Łódź) and 50% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Widzew Łódź's games and 69% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 50% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Korona Kielce run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 0-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.63 xG and Korona Kielce 1.45 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.94 / defence 1.52 against Korona Kielce attack 0.90 / defence 1.28, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 33%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Korona Kielce 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.