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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.16 xG and Korona Kielce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.89 / defence 0.93 against Korona Kielce attack 0.74 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 35% | Korona Kielce 24%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.16 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights