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Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Widzewa Lodz, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Jagiellonia attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 35% | Draw 31% | Jagiellonia 34%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Jagiellonia 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights