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Dominant Slask Wroclaw run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Stal Mielec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw beat Stal Mielec 1-4 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.53 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.94 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 51% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 23%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Slask Wroclaw win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 52%, Slask Wroclaw 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stal Mielec's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.14 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights