Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slask Wroclaw face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.10 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2024, ended Slask Wroclaw 0–3 Zaglebie Lubin — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 55% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 48% | Zaglebie Lubin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.873 / defence 1.052 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.985 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.252. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 64 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 64.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 32% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.11 | Draw 3.65 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 31 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 32% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.12 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.873 / def 1.052 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.985 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Slask Wroclaw 3 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 31) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 32% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.98x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 64 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.65
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.42
1.30
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.30 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 19D 22L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.25 PPG from 64 outings (22W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.25 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 12W 10D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 6D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.12 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 23W 19D 22L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 14D 28L in their last 64 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.44 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won Slask Wroclaw 0-3 Zaglebie Lubin on 28 Jan 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
4
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 59%, Zaglebie Lubin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slask Wroclaw) and 47% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 47% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 88% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 32% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.