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Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 1-2 at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.59 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 49% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 50%, Pogon Szczecin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stal Mielec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights