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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.12 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 32% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights