Slask Wroclaw 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Radomiak Radom's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Slask Wroclaw's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 2 for Radomiak Radom and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 51% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 45% | Radomiak Radom 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.10 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.774 / defence 0.994 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.799 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.200. Slask Wroclaw's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Slask Wroclaw games / 51 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 31%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.10 / Radomiak Radom 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.774 / def 0.994 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.799 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Radomiak Radom xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Slask Wroclaw 1 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 2W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.77) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.17
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.05
0.95
Radomiak Radom xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.95 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 16D 16L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 15W 10D 26L from 51 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.43 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 8W 3D 14L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 16D 16L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 15W 10D 26L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.52 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 56%, Radomiak Radom 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Slask Wroclaw) and 52% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 28% of games; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 36% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 52% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Slask Wroclaw 1-2 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.10 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.95 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 38% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 31%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 45%, Radomiak Radom 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.43 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.