Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slask Wroclaw's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Tarczyński Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Pogon Szczecin's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Slask Wroclaw's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 1 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slask Wroclaw 66% and Pogon Szczecin 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 49% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 0.99 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.925 / defence 1.166 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.065 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.170. Data: 35 Slask Wroclaw games / 35 Pogon Szczecin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 24% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 46%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Pogon Szczecin 2.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 24% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Slask Wroclaw 0.99 / Pogon Szczecin 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.925 / def 1.166 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.065 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 24% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (2 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.93) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
24%
4.19
30%
3.34
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.44
1.45
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.45 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 15D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.94 PPG from 35 outings (19W 11D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 3W 8D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (7W 8D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.86 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 15D 13L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 11D 5L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.00 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 59%, Pogon Szczecin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Slask Wroclaw) and 24% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 41%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 24% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Slask Wroclaw defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 0.99 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.45 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.06 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 24% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 46%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Slask Wroclaw win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 49%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Slask Wroclaw winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.