Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin, 1.30 for Jagiellonia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 2W, Jagiellonia 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 64% and Jagiellonia 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 53% | Jagiellonia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.67 xG and Jagiellonia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.272 / defence 1.036 | Jagiellonia attack 0.931 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.185. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Pogon Szczecin games / 36 Jagiellonia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 4.00. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.67 / Jagiellonia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.272 / def 1.036 | Jagiellonia attack 0.931 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Jagiellonia xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 48% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.93x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.71
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.82
1.14
Jagiellonia xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.14 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 19W 11D 6L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia's form line: 10W 13D 13L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.12 PPG from 17 outings (11W 3D 3L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 5D 8L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.14 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 11D 6L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 10W 13D 13L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.12 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Pogon Szczecin, 59% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Pogon Szczecin and 65% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 59% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 65% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.67 xG and Jagiellonia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 1.04 against Jagiellonia attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 48% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 53%, Jagiellonia 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.