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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slask Wroclaw and Motor Lublin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw and Motor Lublin finished level at 1-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 2.06 xG and Motor Lublin 0.94 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Motor Lublin attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 63% | Draw 20% | Motor Lublin 16%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Motor Lublin's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights