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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw and Jagiellonia finished level at 1-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.36 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Jagiellonia attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 39% | Draw 26% | Jagiellonia 35%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 48%, Jagiellonia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights