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Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.93 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Wisla Plock attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 20%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 0%, Wisla Plock 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 3.00 PPG, Wisla Plock 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights