Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
zondacrypto Arena plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Wisla Plock in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 July 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at zondacrypto Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Wisla Plock are 1.00 PPG clear of Raków Częstochowa in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (3.00 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.93 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.089 / defence 0.950 | Wisla Plock attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.292. Data: 35 Raków Częstochowa games / 1 Wisla Plock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 20%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Wisla Plock 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Raków Częstochowa dominate the H2H record, yet Wisla Plock are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Plock (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.93 / Wisla Plock 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.089 / def 0.950 | Wisla Plock attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 58% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.09x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.85x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.57
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.98
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
34.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.04 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 3.00 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Wisla Plock's attacking output running into Raków Częstochowa's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Wisla Plock in 0%.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Wisla Plock in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Raków Częstochowa or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 0% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 0% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wisla Plock defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.93 xG and Wisla Plock 1.04 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Wisla Plock attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 58% | Draw 22% | Wisla Plock 20%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 0%, Wisla Plock 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 3.00 PPG, Wisla Plock 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.