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Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.75 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.79 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 35% | Widzew Łódź 25%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Widzew Łódź 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights