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Stalemate at Raków Częstochowa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Raków Częstochowa and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.68 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.26 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.06 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 46% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 44%, Radomiak Radom 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

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