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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Radomiak Radom 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Radomiak Radom 2-1 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.77 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 29%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 41%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights