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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Raków Częstochowa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Raków Częstochowa 1-3 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.39 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 0.96 / defence 0.94 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 28%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 43%, Piast Gliwice 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights